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Post by miscmisc on Apr 8, 2014 16:37:02 GMT 1
Will the IMF Bailout Turn Ukraine Into Another Greece? www.thenation.com/article/179212/will-imf-bailout-turn-ukraine-another-greeceThe answer is of course "Much worse than Greece", as the title is a big insult to Greeks (who are several times as rich as Ukrainians even now), but the principle is the same: the IMF is simply bailing out the European banks, again, and the Ukrainian workers will pay for it. Welcome to "Europe"!
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Post by miscmisc on Apr 8, 2014 17:09:07 GMT 1
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Post by miscmisc on Apr 10, 2014 19:15:07 GMT 1
So, once again, people started talking about the "Greek recovery", the "Greek Spring".
Supposedly, all the austerity and whatnot have finally paid off. You know, the same nosense that you've heard before.
They base that optimism on the fact that the Greek equities have been doing much better than, say, the German ones lately, and that the Greek government successfully sold the five-year bonds in the international market with 5% interest rate.
And of course, my reaction to this is: So what. "They make a desert and call it peace" is really perfect for the mentality of those Euro thugs.
The Greek equities at one point reached one tenth of the peak value. You'd be mad to think that it would never rebound at all in a semi-advanced European country like Greece. They have grown twice as big now all right, which means they are still down 80% from the peak.
The traders don't care about long-term. They simply try to buy stuff when it's cheap. If I were a trader, I would've bought a shit load of Greek equities too. When they were at the bottom, they were sitting there with astonishing bargain price tags. Of course I would've bought some of them, although I wouldn't hold them for nearly as long as I would German ones (whose price-to-earnings ratio is much, much better in general, because the German companies actually make money).
And you know my opinion on the Greek economy. Buying equities is not a confidence vote for the whole economy. Only officials and financial pundits don't seem to know that.
As for the five-year notes, they are issued under the English law unlike the previous ones, which were issued under the local law. That's all you need to know. The Greek bonds have higher interest rates than the more stable ones, which is nice in the current global low-interest-rate environment, and you won't be restructure-fucked later if the Greek government finds itself in a deeper shithole. Now that's attractive, even if they are basically junk bonds. Junk bonds + English law = win, for the investors that is. For Greek citizens who will have to pay down the debt, well, the English law basically means "fuck you, pay me". Not so good.
Like I said before, the best you can say about the Greek economy now is that it's shrinking at a slower pace now. It has lost a quarter of the output since 2008. A quarter. And the employment number is still declining.
Under the most optimistic scenario, which means it won't happen, the Greek economy will be back to the 2008 level in 2025. "In the long run we are all dead" is apt here.
So, by all means, call it a Greekovery.
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Post by miscmisc on Apr 10, 2014 20:09:39 GMT 1
The financial elites and politicians have engaged in various propaganda efforts, but the most successful one has to be their attempt to paint this whole ongoing economic mess (for more than five years now, and counting) as a "debt crisis".
As I said many times, it was a banking crisis. It was never a debt crisis. There were debt "problems", but not a crisis, certainly not on such a scale.
But we ended up having one because Brussels, Frankfurt and Berlin decided that we should.
The average Northern European has always been prejudiced against their Southern neighbors. So when the Northern elites and corrupt, slavish Southern leaders decided to force the citizens of Southern Europe to foot the bills for the (mostly Northern) banking losses, it was incredibly easy to sell the idea that the lazy, profligate Southern Neanderthals must be punished for their "excesses".
And a quarter of Spaniards and Greeks are out of job now thanks to that decision.
I just can't emphasize this enough. This is a completely manufactured "debt crisis".
And what's truly depressing is that when I say that, people look at me like I'm from Mars.
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Post by miscmisc on Apr 13, 2014 18:46:25 GMT 1
The interim president of Ukraine announced that they have started a "full-scale anti-terrorist campaign" in the East, deploying the army.
So, an unelected president, who is in that position through non-democratic means, is turning the army on his own people. One assumes that the western media would show some outrage...
Calling those pro-Russian (or anti-Kiev) militias and others "terrorists" is not only stretching it, but also deeply ironic, which once again proves that the word "terrorism" is completely void of actual meaning today.
Meanwhile, Anne Applebaum has just said: "yes, EU should do more: But unless Ukrainians themelves [sic] mobilize and fight this post-modern Russian invasion, no one will do it for them"
Quite a sickeningly passive-aggressive armchair general who actually doesn't give a shit about anything other than fighting (= having others fight) Evil Putin. Ukrainians have to be ready to fight to the last man/woman so as to give her the satisfaction of sticking it to Evil Putin, and what that would actually mean for the actual people is neither here nor there. It's her game in which they have to live, and she wants to win, so shut up and do it!
... is the gist of it.
And never forget: this breathtaking idiot (*who never seems to realize that a moronic phrase like "post-modern Russian invasion" only highlights her shallow, shallow intelligence) is the wife of the Polish foreign minister, who seems to be enjoying his political-star status in the EU now. And the Ukrainian leaders think of these neocon zombies as their best friends.
If the Ukrainian leaders were honest and said something like "Look, the anti-Kiev factions with actual guns and stuff are still small and weak. They must be crushed before they grow any bigger, and we know there are so many potential recruits out there for their camp. Ordinary people would never go with a losing side no matter how uncertain and insecure they actually feel about our new Ukraine and its adversarial stance against Russia, so we must make sure, before it becomes too late, that we are the winning side, and clearly demonstrate that with brute force!", I wouldn't be this pissed. Of course I know they would never say anything like that, but like I said, this is all sickeningly stupid, and that's the problem.
* For one, let's say that Russia has been engaging in covert operations to completely destabilize Eastern Ukraine so as to keep their influence and hegemony in the region: what the hell is "post-modern" about it? That kind of stuff is one of the oldest tricks in our human civilization. Look at Ancient Greece for example. Does she ever know what the word actually means? Whoever thinks this sort of hopeless idiots could ever defeat someone like Putin, who is no genius but certainly not as shallow or vain or devilishly childish as the neocon zombies?
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Post by miscmisc on Apr 15, 2014 9:29:29 GMT 1
The fact of the matter re: Ukraine is that the country will disintegrate sooner or later anyway with or without the pro-Russian/anti-Kiev masked dudes running around in the East, and with or without the tacit Russian support for them. It's painfully obvious that Kiev hopes that they will be able to unite the country by playing up the Russian threat, but the inevitable economic hardship that Ukrainians will have to endure will cause outrage, which will be directed mostly at Kiev, and not at Moscow. There is no sign of economic reforms (which Ukraine, with the absurdly dysfunctional econo-political system dominated by the oligarchs and their political proxies, does badly need) coming, and the economic inequality will only grow larger.
Maidan was no revolution in that nothing fundamental changed, and Ukraine is a failed state whose years/months/days should be numbered, which may be good news for most Ukrainians in actuality.
The problem is, though, that the West (and perhaps Russia, too) will try to do everything to maintain that rotten, dysfunctional status quo. With such lousy "friends" (and enemies), you can only fail your own people.
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Post by miscmisc on Apr 15, 2014 17:39:20 GMT 1
Looks like a civil war is on in Ukraine, no matter how small it will turn out. The Ukraine military has made a move. We are looking at a failed state failing even more. All we can do is just hope that it won't get real nasty.
You have to remember this: "Pro-Russia" doesn't necessarily mean "pro-becoming-Russian"; "Not pro-Russia" doesn't necessarily mean "pro-Kiev" either. There are many, many Eastern Ukrainians who distrust the current government but want to stay Ukrainian (though they don't know how). And of course, some people do support the government.
East Ukraine is not Crimea, where the majority of people did want to be part of Russia.
And that's what I mean by a "failed state". There is no unity, no semblance of a country anymore, and in a way it's only natural that things are falling apart there.
It didn't have to take this sad route, though.
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mzn
Rookie Member
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Post by mzn on Apr 15, 2014 20:49:08 GMT 1
Hey Guys. I think I couldn't help but joining this new forum. I broke up with my girlfriend, so maybe I can spend some time over here. :-)
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Post by h on Apr 15, 2014 21:55:49 GMT 1
Hey Guys. I think I couldn't help but joining this new forum. I broke up with my girlfriend, so maybe I can spend some time over here. :-) dude really? mine left me last night  what the fuck.... |
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aubtin
Novice Member
Posts: 129
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Post by aubtin on Apr 16, 2014 9:40:33 GMT 1
Shit, very sorry to hear that you two. The pub is always open if you need to chat...
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Post by h on Apr 16, 2014 19:55:50 GMT 1
thanks. i cant even bring myself to drink. everything is making me sick. i tried the first night to drink and just threw up because my stomach was sick. i didnt think it was possible to be so upset i cant even drink.
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mzn
Rookie Member
Posts: 42
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Post by mzn on Apr 16, 2014 20:51:25 GMT 1
thanks. i cant even bring myself to drink. everything is making me sick. i tried the first night to drink and just threw up because my stomach was sick. i didnt think it was possible to be so upset i cant even drink. Damn, that's sad to hear man. To me it helped to experience all the emotions as they came and I found a lot of support talking to friends and relatives. If you think it might help to share your feelings in some way I will listen/read! I'm not doing too bad I must admit. It happened two weeks ago now in my case. It was my own decision. It wasn't going the way I wanted things to go and every disagreement turned into an argument as of late. If you know me in real life you would know that's an impressive feat as I don't like to fight at al. My former girlfriend has quite a temper, on the good sight she was very passionate as well but after the last 'argument' she decided to insult me via text messages. And when I talk about insults they were of the type that hurt me in every which way I am. I explained a day later that those statements made me very sad, she decided not to listen but repeat her side of events minus the most horrible insults. I was done with her after that, I thought for a couple of days, but I was done. To her it was quite a shock, she didn't mean it like that... Well, I don't see myself being her verbal punching bag for the next couple of decades so I am done with it. She at first tried to reconcile, after she noticed I wasn't going to change my decision she reverted to insulting me again.... It was a very hard decision indeed. I cried more than the last fifteen years combined. But I don't have any regrets in trying to have a relationship with her. All the reasons that I had for falling in love with her still stand. I have had a great time with her and I find it hard that it wasn't meant to be. I'm just too sensitive for her abrasive ways and also I'm not impulsive enough to fire back whenever she flips out. |
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Post by miscmisc on Apr 17, 2014 18:18:44 GMT 1
Well, I don't see myself being her verbal punching bag for the next couple of decades so I am done with it. If you felt that way, even only for a moment, you clearly made the right decision, though I don't think you need me to tell you that. You might look back on it later and feel as if you were a tad too sensitive or something, but that's usually psychological revisionism at work. That momentary honest feeling of "Good grief, I don't think I will ever be able to get used to this..." is something that you wouldn't be able to shake off. Even if you could suppress it for now through a series of heart-to-heart talks or whatever, it would come back to haunt you sooner or later. |
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Post by miscmisc on Apr 17, 2014 19:07:43 GMT 1
I wonder when Kiev will stop that "the rebels/protesters in Eastern Ukraine = Russian provocateurs/agents" bullshit. It's just laughable. It's really even worse than propaganda. If they want to retain some credibility, they should stop that shit as soon as possible and face the fact that many Eastern/Southern Ukrainian citizens genuinely don't want to be under Kiev's control anymore.
And by "Kiev", I mean the West as well. They gleefully make fun of RT's silly propaganda, but as long as they keep saying that the mess in Eastern Ukraine is somehow all Russia's fault, as if the complex history of the region means nothing now, it's a classic case of pot calling kettle black. Hell, it's worse as Nato is openly making provocative comments (and moves) against Russia now.
They talk about the beginning of the New Cold War, but I think we are already in it.
And for what? We are going apeshit and risking so bloody much over Ukraine's disintegration, a country which had always been divided and waiting to disintegrate anyway; a country that most of us actually don't give a crap about.
I'm genuinely worried about the near-future world. Once again, we are entering a dangerous phase of history due to breathtaking human stupidity. I don't think we can just reset the whole thing now through negotiations. The damage has been done already.
Not much blood has been spilled yet, and things are still rather static at this point. But the world today is very different from the one several months ago, and it's clear to me that the West did even more than Russia to destabilize the region, and the world, as if this was a contest to decide who can be more reckless. Grabbing Crimea in that fashion will haunt Russia in the long run, and the Duma/Kremlin's demonization of the Maidan protesters was over the top to say the least, but the West has been so reckless and insensitive all along that I should declare the latter the winner of the stupid contest.
You may not feel it yet, but something big has been irreparably broken.
This Ukraine mess is probably a much bigger deal in historical context than most of you think it is. And, once again, you can thank your leaders' uncanny idiocy for that, especially if you are American or European.
This is really, really bad for all of us and our children.
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Post by miscmisc on Apr 17, 2014 19:49:54 GMT 1
And now, the mainstream media are reporting that there were anti-Semitic leaflets distributed in Donetsk, signed by the separatist leaders.
Their ability to insult my intelligence seems to have no bounds. I believe that story like I do in Santa Claus. I wouldn't even believe it if it was instead a Galician city where Svoboda is the majority party. That's how silly the story is. It's so obviously crude, shop-worn disinformation bullshit that I wouldn't believe anyone with any brain would eat it up.
But of course, John Kerry does. He's just mentioned it in the presser in Geneva.
What that suggests is that the US State Department is so desperate that they are willing to throw at the wall anything, literally anything, that could damage the reputation of the separatists (and Russia). And the comedy is that they have been trying so hard to suppress all the stories/histories about Svoboda and other racists from Western Ukraine, and what they come up with to discredit the other is the crude racism charge.
"Brainless" is the word that comes to my mind. They think we are all idiots.
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