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Post by miscmisc on Feb 5, 2015 12:16:27 GMT 1
The ECB says that its latest action is completely "in line with the existing Euro system rules".
What rules? As far as I know, there are no such things. Could they care to explain what they are? Where are they written?
Maybe their definition of "rule" is completely different from mine.
This is the sixth time the ECB rather overtly meddled in European politics: Ireland, Spain, Italy, Cyprus and Greece x 2.
What you should learn from that is not that the ECB is particularly unique, but that there is no such thing as an apolitical central bank. Central banks are always political, and it's just that unfortunately in this case, the ECB's political actions have large international consequences.
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Post by miscmisc on Feb 5, 2015 12:40:09 GMT 1
I talked to my German friend about my pessimism on the Greek-German duel an hour or so ago, and he laughed at me, like I'm an idiot. He basically said to me:
You are still a fucking idiot, and know nothing about German politics. The politicians won't have to "jump" off the tree. They are masters at fooling German voters. You just never stop overrating German voters, do you? We don't know shit about what's going on. Most of us probably don't even give a fuck. I'm absolutely positive that we will be able to strike some deal with the Greeks. And we Germans won't know what the fuck the deal was anyway. The politicians won't even bother to tell us. They will just say Europe blah blah blah, and we will move on. Everyone overrates German politicians for some reason. I'd say that's because of the stereotypical Prussian image that you guys have, and borderline racism. The likes of Merkel and Schaeuble, they are a lot more spineless than you think they are. They were against QE for years, and look what we've got last month - QE. They won't be able to sustain that Big Bad Say-Nein Germany shit for long. They aren't made of hard stuff, and that's the good news for all Europeans. Hell, they probably couldn't survive in French politics, which is a lot more rough than the German one, if they were French. Stop overrating my country and its politicians. Don't worry, they will cave in, again.
Is he right, and I'm just over-anxious? He's been right many times before for sure. We will see.
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Post by miscmisc on Feb 5, 2015 13:16:55 GMT 1
I found the description of Yanis Varoufakis by German conservative rag Die Welt pretty funny:
LOL. The conservative type's obsession with how he is dressed is pretty funny. And pathetic, to be frank.
We'll have a Varoufakis-Schaeuble joint conference shortly now.
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Post by miscmisc on Feb 5, 2015 13:30:23 GMT 1
Paul Krugman's take on the ECB move to not accept the GGB as collateral anymore is interesting. He emphasizes the fact that that line of financing is not critical for Greek banks anymore, so if it's a threat, it's pretty much an empty one. That's what I said in a previous post, too. But Krugman goes further: he thinks that it's a message (= political meddling) from the ECB all right, but not to Greece, but to Germany.
I'm not sure, but that's possible. Draghi isn't one to think light of the consequences of the Grexit.
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Post by miscmisc on Feb 5, 2015 14:05:38 GMT 1
Obviously, Yanis and Wolfie didn't reach any sort of semi-agreement in their meeting, but Yanis is having a field day in the conference, repeating what he was saying on his blog for years in front of the global audience, using exactly the same favorite words of his. His demand is a bit fuzzy, though. Sounds like a bit of scaling down from the initial one.
Wolfie is calm, too. He hasn't said anything stupid, but you shouldn't expect him to do so.
Meanwhile, Klaus Kastner tweeted that a very senior ECB official told him that he didn't see how a solution can be found without new elections in Greece. LOL. What a moron, casually revealing to a commentator/analyst that he thinks of democratic process like a video game you can reset as many times as you want until you get the "best" result.
And most importantly, well, I don't know what kind of reality that senior official lives in, but if Greece were to hold another election today, Syriza would gain even more seats, becoming the outright majority party in the parliament. None of the polls suggest otherwise.
They seem to think that this is just a little more complicated version of Ireland all over again, completely forgetting this is 2015. The Irish were sucker-punched by the ECB and Germany, and the popular opinion didn't matter. It didn't even get a chance to matter.
This is different. This is not at all like Ireland 2010. It should be so obvious to anyone unless they live in a cave.
I guess Frankfurt is a kind of a cave, and Europe is at the cavemen's mercy.
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Post by miscmisc on Feb 5, 2015 20:18:13 GMT 1
OK, I was wrong; Schaeuble did say a pretty stupid thing in the conference. He said something like, "I usually don't talk about corruption, because I don't like to speak ill of other countries", when asked about the corruption issue.
You see, there is no corruption in Germany. So, talking about corruption automatically means talking about other countries. The fact that the biggest corruption scandal in Greece in the last decade involved Siemens - the German industrial icon well-known as a transnational/trans-continental corruption brigade in every corner of the world - is irrelevant. Even in this conference's context.
Well... very Schaeuble-like, isn't it? Like I said, the complete lack of self-awareness is one of his biggest strengths as a politician.
Yanis quickly reminded him and everyone else of the trans-national nature of the corruption and scored a major point right there, though. So, Wolfie did stupid there.
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Post by miscmisc on Feb 6, 2015 16:36:11 GMT 1
People make fun of economics's obsession with math, and so do I, very often. But I would never say that economics should ditch math. It's not math's problem, but the users'. It's economists that abuse math to obtain the result that they wanted to begin with, and mind you, this is not limited to economics. Even in natural science, people do that every day, trying to sell bollocks to you. Well, probably not to you, but to big corporations.
Math doesn't moralize stuff. Math doesn't care if you are a creditor or debtor. Debt and credit are the same thing as far as math is concerned. If it finds imbalance in the structure, it correctly points at who destabilize the system the most, regardless of their positions.
And I can definitely assure you that math has been very, very clear on the European currency union. It's not pointing at Greece or Spain; but at the Netherlands and Germany, with their exploding current account surpluses to significantly destabilize the union. If we were governed by the Machine that only understands the language of math, those two would be the first countries to be punished by It. It wouldn't even give a tinker's cuss about Greece.
Thank God we are governed by fellow human beings who understand "moral", right? Right?
But most importantly, math has been gazing intensely at one particular group of people, and it's not any specific country. The ultimate conclusion of the Machine is that this is not about countries. Yes, it's the rich people - the wealthy class in all Europe, be it Greece, Spain, Italy or Germany. Math is Marxist? Maybe it is, indeed.
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Post by miscmisc on Feb 6, 2015 17:42:18 GMT 1
Obviously, I want Germany to cave in on the euro issue, so deep as to end up getting out of the other side, but desperately do not want it to do so when it comes to Ukraine/Russia. Merkel should never, ever cave in under the utterly ridiculous Anglo-Saxon pressure. She ought to understand that any escalation there would lead to the destruction of Ukraine, and unbearable political instability in the EU. It's just the two crazy English-speaking outsiders being as irresponsible as ever. The US just don't get it. The Americans think that just because they are much more powerful than Russia, they can get whatever they want. They don't understand how Russians consider Ukraine to be a national survival issue. I wouldn't even be surprised if they pressed the nuke button over it.
And the Americans would never actually clean up the mess that the escalation would undoubtedly leave, and I trust no one is under any illusion that the UK would, or even could play any constructive role in such cases. The US would just "move on", as Hilary Clinton likes it. They would just dump everything onto Europe, whistle, and stroll away. And that's the best case scenario.
Don't do it, Angela. Please, don't.
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bol
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Post by bol on Feb 6, 2015 21:36:00 GMT 1
I talked to my German friend about my pessimism on the Greek-German duel an hour or so ago, and he laughed at me, like I'm an idiot. He basically said to me: You are still a fucking idiot, and know nothing about German politics. The politicians won't have to "jump" off the tree. They are masters at fooling German voters. You just never stop overrating German voters, do you? We don't know shit about what's going on. Most of us probably don't even give a fuck. I'm absolutely positive that we will be able to strike some deal with the Greeks. And we Germans won't know what the fuck the deal was anyway. The politicians won't even bother to tell us. They will just say Europe blah blah blah, and we will move on. Everyone overrates German politicians for some reason. I'd say that's because of the stereotypical Prussian image that you guys have, and borderline racism. The likes of Merkel and Schaeuble, they are a lot more spineless than you think they are. They were against QE for years, and look what we've got last month - QE. They won't be able to sustain that Big Bad Say-Nein Germany shit for long. They aren't made of hard stuff, and that's the good news for all Europeans. Hell, they probably couldn't survive in French politics, which is a lot more rough than the German one, if they were French. Stop overrating my country and its politicians. Don't worry, they will cave in, again.
Is he right, and I'm just over-anxious? He's been right many times before for sure. We will see. Hi misc, always a pleasure to read the rants. I found unfortunately no time to put in some rants aswell. I (as a German) think he has a point except for the "masters at fooling" (they are just not much challenged for it). It is without a doubt a spineless and very opportunistic government. However German media has been so fed up with the "lazy southeners want our money because we are hard working people"-propaganda that they may now have the Sorcerer's Apprentice problem (a popular Goethe poem where the apprentice calls spirits to clean up for him and then is not able to call them back anymore). It is a easy situation to become popular in the media atm by bashing the Greeks, which alot politicians and other "very serious" people use (the media knows pretty much no limit here). So they may be even more in fear to not sustain the Big Bad Say-Nein than to sustain it. Guess it will depend on how much noise it will make. |
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Post by miscmisc on Feb 7, 2015 20:00:52 GMT 1
Thanks for the input.
Germany really ought to swiftly and smartly deal with this issue, and buy some time to ponder about a much bigger picture regarding Europe, and even more importantly, its own economy. A small entity like Greece shouldn't decide the fate of Europe, as the Germans will have to deal with much bigger shit later. Germany is actually in no position to be so patronizing toward other economies, but sadly, it doesn't seem to me that German people really realize that.
As far as I can see, the German economy has already been Japanized, pretty much. I don't think the country can escape from the constant deflationary pressure (or out right deflation), anemic growth, and depressed domestic demand anytime soon, with its declining population, saving patterns and total dependency on current account surpluses. Well, it could do better than Japan for a while since the European market to which it has free access is still there to help its economy, but still it's fundamentally Japanized. And it's not just Germany. The Finnish government bonds' interest rates turned negative recently, and so did the Danish one. Welcome to the world of deflation. Japan was rather lonely for years, but finally, some new kids have joined the club. I guess the euro bubbles simply delayed the inevitable for those countries by a decade or so.
In an ideal world, Germany would be the USA of Europe, the economic giant with massive volumes of domestic demand to buoy the industries in other euro countries. But that's just not happening, it seems. It was just never going to happen.
I sometimes feel sorry for Germany, really. People outside constantly overrate the German economy, and I must say that I've been guilty of that too every now and then. The German economy is probably not powerful or healthy enough to meet all the demands. Some people, such as Paul Krugman, may be indeed too harsh on Germany, expecting and demanding an impossible from the country. Germany has a tough road ahead, on top of all the European issues that it's supposed to oversee. What Japan has been doing to fight the Japanized situation/environment isn't really working, so the newer members will have to come up with something other than fiscal steroids and open-ending QE. I'm sure that Germany will never copy the Japanese way anyway, but what it's doing now - meaningless austerity even at the expense of investment - is most likely to simply worsen its own situation, not to mention Europe's. That European fiscal compact thing is beyond ridiculous given the situation we are in. The Spanish government bonds yield even less than the British one now, and that's most definitely not because the Spanish government is fiscally sound (it is anything but, even with the austerity).
I'm sure Germany will have to change the course sooner or later, but all the euro issues and troubles (plus Ukraine/Russia) are so politically distracting that I don't know if they will even have time and energy left to calmly assess their own problems. Germany can change only on its own accord, and not because of some outside pressure. My fear is that Germany will simply keep hardening its own stance as the pressure from other European countries mounts, until it's already too late. What's really annoying about Japanization is that you don't quite get a Greek-like crisis moment - which could give you a reason/motivation to stomp out conventionalism and try a new thing as your ass is on fire for real - but just constant stagnation and deflation wearing you out slowly and gradually. And once that process kicks in, it becomes near impossible to escape from it. Germany seems too distracted to deal with the problem, as it has to play a big "European" role too.
That's a tough situation to be in, for anyone. There is a great chance that making necessary concessions and turning the euro system into something more workable and functional for everyone is the best way for Germany to get out of the Japanization, or at least soften the degree of it, but they are too distracted by stupid politics and international power game to see that, I'm afraid. That chance is slipping out of their hands as we speak. This whole thing isn't really just about any specific country. There is no such thing as the Greek problem. It's only part of the big problem that everyone shares, and that "everyone" even includes people outside the eurozone. But as always, we are witnessing politics and its nationalistic nature ruining it all.
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Post by miscmisc on Feb 7, 2015 23:40:05 GMT 1
BTW, when I say people like Paul Krugman are too harsh on Germany, I mean that they are in terms of economics. Politics is an entirely different matter. When Krugman says this (from his NYT Op-ed):
I don't think he's harsh at all there. You might think that paragraph is a tad too deliberately offensive - Oh, you thought I was talking about the Greeks, right? Nope! - but I'm afraid that the German politicians have done enough to deserve such a treatment.
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Post by miscmisc on Feb 8, 2015 0:03:33 GMT 1
The Guardian should be ashamed of themselves: www.theguardian.com/world/2015/feb/06/vladimir-putin-west-divisions-war-ukraine?CMP=share_btn_twI can't even. Won't even quote. It's just an embarrassing piece of foreign policy journalism. I actually don't exactly know why Brits are always willing to go off even deeper end than Americans when it comes to Russia. It's particularly funny if you recall how much those shady Russian riches contribute to the London real estate market. Or maybe that's exactly why, in the Guardian's case? Thank God the UK is pretty much a non-entity now in this kind of international politics, especially since the Cameron government. That may be why they can say irresponsible things like this week in week out; no consequences to be expected anyway, as their opinion matters zilch. |
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Post by miscmisc on Feb 8, 2015 0:25:35 GMT 1
I dedicate this to British journalists:
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Post by miscmisc on Feb 8, 2015 0:52:02 GMT 1
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Post by miscmisc on Feb 8, 2015 12:11:28 GMT 1
To the anti-vaxers (including the contrarian potheads like Bill Maher <-- there really is a pattern with this guy, isn't there?):
The fact that there have been dozens, or even hundreds, of "scientists" questioning the scientific validity of vaccination has no significance to help your cause. Anti-vaxx has indeed been a fringe industry with a nauseatingly long tradition in a fringe corner of the science community for as long as anyone can remember, just like the anti-Einstein, anti-Relativity camp. The former has about the same amount of credibility as the latter. You don't side with the latter, because you think that high physics stuff is way over your head, and pretty much irrelevant to your everyday life (which is not true, though - even your mobile phone was built in no small part based on the theorem). The bad news to you is that the science of vaccination is also way over your head.
And something "making sense" to clueless laymen like you doesn't mean shit. If you are clever, you could get about anything to "make sense" to those who aren't very familiar with the stuff. A wise man from ancient Greece said, "I could prove to you that water is hard, and stone is fluid. You have to appreciate the fact that I have integrity not to do so."
If you immerse yourself in the "make sense" world, composed of statistically irrelevant data conveniently gathered to construct one "coherent" narrative to laymen, you think that's the truth. I said "statistically irrelevant" there for a reason. I don't expect everyone to be sufficiently knowledgeable about science in general. That would be an impossible demand. This rant is obviously not designed to educate you on this issue in detail. I'm no expert either, after all. But the key is statistics (and probability theory, too). The vast majority of people simply don't understand it, don't know how to read it, or how to interpret/assess data on a relative basis, etc. That seems to me to be the crucial thing that separates the scientifically literate and the illiterate. Statistics can be often very counter-intuitive, as many scientific theories are. You need to have a certain set of skills/knowledge to correctly understand it, but it's really not hard to learn them. I often think that they should make it a mandatory course in high school education. People tend to fall for conspiracy theories largely due to their complete lack of understanding on statistics.
The anti-vaxx crowd, particularly the ones on the "liberal" side, steadfastly refuse to be associated with the climate change deniers. But there simply isn't any big difference between the two; both of them don't understand statistics at all. It's really as simple as that as far as I'm concerned.
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