Random Rant Thread

[miscmisc]

"Self-isolation" doesn't work. The stats have proven it. Look at the numbers out of the UK for example. They are awful. Far too many people simply didn't give a shit. The UK government is now considering *paying* the Covid-19 positive people 500 pounds in order to encourage them to comply with the rules on self-isolation. Ridiculous.

I kept saying this back in the spring and summer blue in the face: Every country should've had the public quarantine system for the asymptomatic/very mild cases ready, using hotels and so on. It's too late now, of course. There are too many new cases. Hell, the hospitals are so overwhelmed that they wouldn't even admit fairly sick people in now.

But they should've set one up while the case numbers were very low. And they will definitely have to do it after this wave.

[miscmisc]

This interview with Dr. Birx, former White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator under Trump, is very illuminating.

www.cbsnews.com/video/full-interview-dr-deborah-birx-on-face-the-nation/#x

Makes you vomit, really. What a criminally immature administration it was.

[miscmisc]

I can guarantee you with 100% certainty that the British government didn't understand the full implication of Brexit. It's obvious to me now. They are panicking almost as much as a medium-sized processed food exporter in Southampton, while saying in public that everything will be fine soon.

It's not going to be fine soon.

There needs to be some fundamental changes in how British companies do their business. It's useless to complain about delayed deliveries, delayed exports, delayed everything, because that's going to be the new normal.

I've called the EU the world's biggest protection racket. Such a term clearly connotes something negative, right?

Well, it does because it's a nightmare to trade with the EU. It is for Japan, for the US, for Brazil, for South Korea, for Australia, even for Canada. It's a nightmare to deal with the EU trade and customs. I, as a non-EU citizen in the EU, saw it firsthand when I was in Belgium. I saw so much absurdity that you wouldn't believe it. It's deliberately designed that way so that every single goddamn non-EU company who wants to do business with the EU is effectively forced to set up European HQ/distribution hubs to provide employment for Europe, mostly for completely unproductive stupid "work" regarding customs and regulations. That's why so many Japanese companies had operation centers in England, and they had to flee the UK for the Netherlands post-Brexit.

That's why it was madness for the UK to leave the EU. But let's not dwell on what has already happened.

The UK government must wake up and smell the coffee. This is a permanent problem, and many, many British businesses will have to close shop without government assistance. I'm not really talking about showering them with money, although that might be necessary for some sectors. But they really have to stop kidding around, and present clear policies to tackle the issue.

I don't even know who is in charge of the EU trading. There MUST be more negotiations with Brussels, but who the fuck is in charge?

I don't know why I'm saying this about a country in which I have no stake, but the sheer negligence, ignorance and incompetence displayed by that government is simply astounding. You can't blame everything on Covid.

[miscmisc]

I have a friend who has been struggling with the same problem, and he's not even an American but a Mexican, living in Mexico City.

And he's divorcing her now.

[miscmisc]

QAnon is a quintessential cult movement, and its scale is bigger than anything that we've seen in our life time. It has ruined and will continue to ruin countless human relationships not only in the US, but also in many other countries.

[miscmisc]

I made fun of epidemiology plenty in this thread, and even nearly called it pseudo-science. Because frankly it was obvious that the whole academic field was absolutely not ready for a real, actual pandemic both logistically and intellectually, and all epidemiologists should be embarrassed for that.

But that certainly doesn't mean you aren't talking out of your stupid ass when you say shit like "You epidemiologists like lockdowns because you only care about old people dying and not about the economy and social health!" Epidemiology is about balancing socio-economic cost and benefit, risk and reward. That's what epidemiologists care primarily about, by definition, not "old people dying." So, shut up.

[K1power]

So the curfew went live here over the weekend and my city was amongst those with 'protests':

streamable.com/5awhaw

streamable.com/zqkh84

This is just a small excerpt taken two streets away from my home and shit like that went down all over the country with hundreds of people being arrested:
nos.nl/liveblog/2365888-politie-eindhoven-geweld-was-ongekend-tussenstand-250-mensen-opgepakt.html

dutchreview.com/news/anti-lockdown-riots-across-the-netherlands-cause-chaos-and-destruction/

Of course none of this has anything to do with protesting, but that's the excuse people give for letting their destructive urges run free i.e. "I'm fighting for FREEDOM!". Unfortunately most of these idiots are kids from immigrant families which will only end up giving right wing groups new ammunition, putting literal and figurative targets on the backs of hard working, decent folk with an immigrant background.

It's completely inverted compared to the BLM movement where most protesters are actual, peaceful protesters and there's just a minority of rioters.

Also BLM is an actual cause whereas Covid-conspiracy is a fairy tale, which probably explains why the ratios are inverted.

[miscmisc]

Yeah, I saw the footage, and it didn't look much different from the old footage from the 1980s-90s of the skirmish between Ajax and Feyenoord ultras. Very young, very male.

In a way, I feel relieved that most, if not all, of it seem to be the angst of the frustrated youth, the same old universal story. Those people would've been water-cannoned and maced after a football match some decades ago. And the fact that many of them are from (recent, I suppose) immigrant families in this 2021 world is not surprising at all either.

Generally speaking, young males like riots. The cause can be anything. I'm speaking for my younger self too. I didn't because I wasn't presented an opportunity to do one AND get away with it. And I'm just half-joking.

I would start feeling a lot more worried if the demographics of the rioters/hardcore protesters shifted, got older and more inclusive. That's when shit gets truly real.

But of course, this kind of stuff damages the morale of the country. I know you can't simply dismiss it as no big deal, as youths going wild. We are in the middle of a pandemic after all. This kind of chaotic atmosphere tacitly erodes social trust, when you need it the most.

[miscmisc]

"The US has done well compared to Europe actually, you should look at the table and see where Belgium, Italy, the UK etc. are instead of just repeating the talking points, lulz" would be valid if those numbers on the tables were neutral indicators. This gotcha has been fashionable among contrarians.

There are currently 9 US states with higher deaths per capita than Belgium, which is the worst European country in terms of Covid deaths, and only one of them, the tiny state of Rhode Island, has higher population density, and all of the states have *significantly* younger populations than Belgium.

Two of the states are the Dakotas, literally middle-of-nowhere states. You'd even wonder how on earth transmissions of such scale could occur in such low population density areas.

The US has a vast, vast rural population unlike Europe, and they push down the average numbers overall. How do you think Republicans manage to compete with Democrats in every election? Europeans are a lot more concentrated in urban areas in each country, which is very clearly a disadvantage when it comes to viral diseases.

And the US population is *significantly* younger on top of that. That's a massive factor especially in terms of Covid-19 deaths.

Yet New Jersey, New York and Massachusetts have done only a little better than *Lombardy* in Italy.

Sure, I'm also aware of the clear advantage that Europe has, that is the fact that they are still independent countries and can do some things that US states cannot, most notably strict border control. That's a big deal obviously.

But is that big enough to offset the demographical/geographical advantage that the US has? No way.

So, nope.

PS: Note I didn't even have to mention the way Belgium counts Covid deaths, which is very different from the way the US (and most other countries for that matter) does.

[miscmisc]

The irony about Brexit is the EU regulations/customs that are giving Britain such a hard time post-Brexit were written in large part by British officials, who played a critical role in crafting the EU trade policies.

[miscmisc]

Meanwhile, this is such a huge opportunity for Ireland, a gift from God.

[K1power]

Just had a two hour involuntary COVID debate in one of my Whatsapp friend group chats.

Unfortunately I've learned a whole lot of opinions I didn't care to find out about including but not limited to sympathy for rioters, calling the official death toll a lie, anti-vax, all the greatest hits basically.

While basically dismissing some of my friends as mentally challenged I learned once again that no matter how stupid or negative a point of view may be, you're never changing the mind of someone who's deeply invested in their own way of thinking. Regardless of what logic or facts you hit them with, they come with their own facts or points of view. Confirmation bias and all that.

What really got to me was the notion that this is a 'both sides have valid points' type of situation. No it's not. You're either right or wrong.

It's frustrating. Worst of all it's not even a lack of intelligence despite my making sure to accuse everyone of it, making myself look bitter in the process lol. Even smart people can live in a very stupid, horribly pessimistic self-inflicted version of 'reality'.

[gols]

Jan 25, 2021 2:49:47 GMT 1 miscmisc said:

I can guarantee you with 100% certainty that the British government didn't understand the full implication of Brexit. It's obvious to me now. They are panicking almost as much as a medium-sized processed food exporter in Southampton, while saying in public that everything will be fine soon.

The British government is full of Brexiters, and Brexiters never understood any implications of Brexit. It's basically a requirement of the club that you don't understand. It kind of explains their handling of Covid too...

[miscmisc]

Jan 25, 2021 23:00:23 GMT 1 K1power said:

Just had a two hour involuntary COVID debate in one of my Whatsapp friend group chats.

Unfortunately I've learned a whole lot of opinions I didn't care to find out about including but not limited to sympathy for rioters, calling the official death toll a lie, anti-vax, all the greatest hits basically.

While basically dismissing some of my friends as mentally challenged I learned once again that no matter how stupid or negative a point of view may be, you're never changing the mind of someone who's deeply invested in their own way of thinking. Regardless of what logic or facts you hit them with, they come with their own facts or points of view. Confirmation bias and all that.

What really got to me was the notion that this is a 'both sides have valid points' type of situation. No it's not. You're either right or wrong.

It's frustrating. Worst of all it's not even a lack of intelligence despite my making sure to accuse everyone of it, making myself look bitter in the process lol. Even smart people can live in a very stupid, horribly pessimistic self-inflicted version of 'reality'.

Yeah, once you locked yourself in your own comfortable reality, a framework whose central pillar or two are actually completely detached from the ground, it's really hard to get out of it. Everything "makes sense" to you in there. There's no reason for you to get out of it, until the Reality with a capital R punches you in the face.

It's nearly impossible to change those people's mind.

Democracy depends crucially on the notion that persuasion is possible. But if people don't even share fundamental facts, what does "persuasion" mean on the practical level?

Even a Nobel laureate - and I'm talking about a *real* one in natural science - makes utterly absurd claims about the IFR of Covid-19, the excess deaths in Sweden, etc. They sound absurd to you because you do not share his fundamental assumption that it's basically just the flu. Once you share that premise, believe me, you'll find a way to accept those absurd claims as eye-opening genius theories.

Ultimately, you can argue for anything, against anything. At the very least, we must understand that merely "making sense" means fuck all. There needs to be a lot more than that to justify the reality that we choose to base our life upon.

[miscmisc]

Jan 26, 2021 17:18:58 GMT 1 gols said:

Jan 25, 2021 2:49:47 GMT 1 miscmisc said:

I can guarantee you with 100% certainty that the British government didn't understand the full implication of Brexit. It's obvious to me now. They are panicking almost as much as a medium-sized processed food exporter in Southampton, while saying in public that everything will be fine soon.

The British government is full of Brexiters, and Brexiters never understood any implications of Brexit. It's basically a requirement of the club that you don't understand. It kind of explains their handling of Covid too...

Yeah, I know, but I'm rather concerned about the lack of serious analyses on Brexit even outside those Brexiters. I see some on the Financial Times of course, but very little on the Guardian, BBC, the lot. Almost nothing from Labour. I understand Covid is the priority now, but there must be tons and tons of British people/businesses who are in serious, serious trouble now.

To be fair, few people really knew what was coming. I wasn't sure either, although I was sure economists like Krugman were underestimating the impact. I guess the media are kind of waiting to get a clearer picture, but it's already clear enough to me.

My biggest fear is that this negligence will end up creating a nasty rift between the UK and EU, fatally damaging the relationship. The US will try to prevent this from happening, but it might not work. Things don't exactly work the way they used to anymore.