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Post by miscmisc on Dec 18, 2021 20:26:22 GMT 1
The fact that so many people, including smart ones, believe in this determinism that SARS-CoV-2 will definitely and *naturally* evolve into a much more harmless virus down the road tells you a lot about how dangerous commonsensical amateur thinking can be.
That notion does make sense to you and me on the surface, but in reality SARS-CoV-2 feels no evolutionary pressure not to harm or kill its host. It's all about transmissibility in SARS-CoV-2's case.
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Post by miscmisc on Dec 18, 2021 21:00:38 GMT 1
Meanwhile, in the anti-woke world:  LOL If the lack of self-awareness were an Olympic sport, she could win a medal. You'd think that such a clear epiphany as "The people who don't know me personally think I'm great, but the people close to me think I'm a fucking piece of shit" should lead to a small eureka moment for her, but nope. Not with people like her. They think it's just the podcasts that annoy them, apparently. Yeah, it's the woke crowd that don't understand real people, alright lol. |
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Post by miscmisc on Dec 18, 2021 21:04:40 GMT 1
"I was at your wedding, Denise."
God, I'm dying here, lol.
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Post by K1power on Dec 19, 2021 1:08:03 GMT 1
I've been a bit selfish the past few weeks; attended an at-home birthday party (like 7 people), had dinner at a somewhat crowded restaurant and went to the cinema for the first time in well over two years.
While I very much enjoyed those events, I'd be lying if I said I wasn't feeling somewhat guilty and unresponsible. I mean, I've only been gathering with vaxxed mask-wearers who are all about to be boostered, but that'll only get you so far and isn't as good as complete abstinance.
All of this was in Belgium where the rules are a bit more loose than in the Netherlands, which will go back into lockdown starting tomorrow.
On the other hand, I was able to bullshit my way out of work's semi-mandatory Christmas party and won't attend gatherings of any kind during the holidays.
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Post by miscmisc on Dec 19, 2021 4:56:35 GMT 1
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Post by miscmisc on Dec 19, 2021 5:17:10 GMT 1
I've been a bit selfish the past few weeks; attended an at-home birthday party (like 7 people), had dinner at a somewhat crowded restaurant and went to the cinema for the first time in well over two years. While I very much enjoyed those events, I'd be lying if I said I wasn't feeling somewhat guilty and unresponsible. I mean, I've only been gathering with vaxxed mask-wearers who are all about to be boostered, but that'll only get you so far and isn't as good as complete abstinance. All of this was in Belgium where the rules are a bit more loose than in the Netherlands, which will go back into lockdown starting tomorrow. On the other hand, I was able to bullshit my way out of work's semi-mandatory Christmas party and won't attend gatherings of any kind during the holidays. Don't feel bad about that. It was indeed largely the epidemic of the unvaccinated for a while, and it was entirely justifiable not to sacrifice your life enjoyment for those who chose to be vulnerable. Omicron is so different from Delta that it does change the rule of the game one way or another. It's virtually impossible to contain such a transmissible one with the immune escape ability, barring an impractical TOTAL lockdown plus border control, so it really comes down to each individual's choice. At this point it's hard to tell people what to do. It would be futile and even counter-productive. The problem is that you can't give them the vision of what's next, the picture that we are sacrificing stuff for. People simply won't listen to you. You just make your own decision and hope for the best, the best by your own criteria. The data coming from South Africa now look better than feared. We can't draw any definite conclusion from that yet, not least because there are significant epidemiological differences between South Africa and Western Europe, but we'll see. Gauteng's Omicron Wave Is Already Peaking. Why?nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/12/the-south-africa-omicron-wave-is-already-peaking-why.html |
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Post by miscmisc on Dec 19, 2021 5:33:07 GMT 1
As for me personally, I would be very cautious even though I'm one of the prior infection slash Moderna vaccination crowd that generally have the highest immunity. I haven't been boosted yet, but I would be or about to be if I were in Europe or USA now, and I would still be very cautious.
I'm still far from the point where I could say this is the endemicity and that we have to just live with it. It's absurd to say that at this point.
You can wax lyrical over the long-term significance of the emergence of such a variant and whatnot all you want, but in all likelihood what will happen in many countries right now, in the next several weeks and beyond, won't be pretty, and that should be the overwhelming concern for everyone.
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Post by miscmisc on Dec 19, 2021 5:53:42 GMT 1
What I'm saying is that you can't use the stick and expect people to follow you when you don't have a carrot. Sure you do have a carrot, but that's a negative carrot, in the form of "It would be worse otherwise." We are fresh out of positive carrots at this moment. They won't listen to you anymore. And you can't say they are totally irrational. They are not right of course; But they aren't totally irrational either.
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Post by miscmisc on Dec 19, 2021 7:47:51 GMT 1
OK, for what it's worth, which is not much, my *gut feeling* about Omicron is that it's inherently less virulent than Delta. It makes the unvaccinated less sick than Delta does. Omicron's exceptionally high Rt will cause serious trouble soon either way, so our immediate concern isn't exactly the severity of it. But that's how I *feel* at this point. I would rather get Omicron than get sick with Delta.
But I wouldn't act on that premise. Whether Omicron is less severe than Delta or not isn't quite relevant to how I'm likely to behave this winter.
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Post by miscmisc on Dec 19, 2021 8:03:59 GMT 1
It's so confusing to have so many Guptas and Bhattacharyas in epidemiology/virology especially when these surnames seem to cover both the best ones and absolute worst ones in the field.
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Post by miscmisc on Dec 19, 2021 8:46:19 GMT 1
Some people just continue not to understand that if many people get sick, even mildly sick like common cold sick all at once, the society will break down because many of them are professionals who sustain our social infrastructure. The healthcare workers are only one part of the story, albeit perhaps the most important one given the situation.
I don't know why it's difficult for them to understand the concept of many people getting sick all at once.
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Post by miscmisc on Dec 19, 2021 8:59:03 GMT 1
So far it doesn't seem like Omicron is replacing Delta in England; It's simply adding a lot of new cases.  |
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Post by miscmisc on Dec 19, 2021 9:05:57 GMT 1
What's most striking about the data from Denmark is actually the sheer volume of PCR/antigen tests done each day. I don't think it's necessary for every country to do the same, but they are giving us invaluable information by capturing so many cases that wouldn't have been captured in other countries. That gives us a clearer picture.
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Post by miscmisc on Dec 19, 2021 15:56:19 GMT 1
Three of my friends living in NYC tested positive. They are all fully vaccinated and boosted. They ate out together, with four other people who are also fully vaccinated and boosted. Only one of them tested negative. 6/7 positive.
Very obviously Omicron. Frighteningly contagious, penetrating the first layer of the immunity so easily.
Two of my friends have symptoms. Fever, fatigue and sore throat, but not too serious. The other one is asymptomatic at this point.
It really started feeling real to me now. If what happened to my friends is the norm, well, that would be bad. They were all boosted, you know.
EDIT: It seems that the three people who had dinner with my friends and tested positive are all asymptomatic, maybe slightly sore throat but no fever, no headache. Good to hear that.
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Post by miscmisc on Dec 19, 2021 16:50:36 GMT 1
Like I said, the unvaccinated who got infected with Delta tend to stay in the hospital for a veeeeeeeeeeeeeeery long time. They can't leave, because they don't get better easily. Delta is a very virulent variant especially for the unvaccinated, at least three times worse than the "Italian" strain that terrorized the world in 2020. Those patients will continue to occupy the beds as Omicron marches on.
The unvaccinated will be demonized even further.
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