Random Rant Thread

[miscmisc]

I'm pretty sure I don't have to say this in this thread, as I don't think any of you are a fool, but just, just in case... a "mild" infection of Omicron is still a "mild" Covid infection. I'm sure you know what that means. Just because Omicron is possibly, probably less virulent than Delta doesn't mean it's suddenly a truly mild disease. It's still Covid. You can easily get ridiculously sick for days with your "mild" Omicron infection.

[miscmisc]

Donald shitting on crypto, after promoting the vaccines and booster shots. Not a good week for a certain type of Trump supporters.

I knew that he would absolutely hate crypto, that he wouldn't even understand it. Cyrpto is dogshit, but that's not because it's "anti-dollar" or anything like that. So he's absolutely right for wrong reasons.

[miscmisc]

It's very hard to see how Omicron, China's (or, to be more precise, Xi's) Covid Eradication Policy and Beijing Olympics can be compatible with each other.

[miscmisc]

Tokyo Olympics was held in the midst of the summer Delta wave in Japan. Therefore some infections among athletes and other guests weren't considered a big deal. There were quite a few in fact, but it wasn't even reported much.

That's certainly not going to be the case in China.

[miscmisc]

"Omicron coronavirus variant is spreading rapidly in Italy, with early data showing it accounted for 28% of cases on 20 December, health authorities say."

Oh. 28%? 72% is Delta, then. Given that Italy has had 15k-35k new infections a day for several days now, that's a lot of Delta infections, if you ask me.

Italy *is* in the middle of a Delta wave too. It's just that Omicron is significantly accelerating the pace of the new infections.

That narrative, as if Europe has already moved on from Delta to Omicron, is stupid and even harmful. Delta might fade out gradually, but it's still killing tons of people in Europe as we speak.

[miscmisc]

I gotta go to bed, but 120k new cases in the UK!

I shouldn't be surprised, and it's probably just the beginning, but holy mary crap. That's a huge number of cases!

Man. I assume that a lot of sick people who should be hospitalized will have to fight it at home. The hospitals wouldn't admit them in even if they still have beds available. They will save those beds for the truly severe cases. It's going to be absolutely horrible for the "mild" cases that aren't very mild.

[miscmisc]

LOL

In case you aren't aware of this, Candace, Donald despises you. He doesn't "hate" you, but despises you. Get the difference? That's why he threw that random bullshit-y Chinese education bit immediately after you simply uttered the word "China." 

He always despised people like you. He thinks you are an idiot to whom he nonetheless has to be "nice" for business.

But you're such a corrupt charlatan that you wouldn't mind him messing with you like this, although I must say you seem kind of upset.

[miscmisc]

No, we wouldn't.

[miscmisc]

If Trevor Bedford mentions it in public, it's final. That's Rule #8 of Covid-19.

I know, he's been wrong before, but I can't think of anyone else who can arguably be called a public authority.

So it's probably not only just less virulent, but *intrinsically* so.

Always trust my gut feeling! Most scientists, the good ones, didn't quite believe this, and I perfectly understand why; It didn't and perhaps still doesn't make much sense virologically.

[miscmisc]

Incidentally, Donald Trump has been pleading with people to get vaccinated for months now, albeit far, far, far less often than he should've (and he usually had to chicken out in order to soothe the booing mob), and in my estimation about 54 MAGA people have changed their mind on the vaccines because of what he said.

So, it really doesn't matter. He's not what controls that crowd.

[miscmisc]

This is a good one.

I don't even know if it will actually decrease, but there has always been a lot of incontinence going around the holiday seasons.

[miscmisc]

Swab PCR tests are so pre-fall-2020. Saliva tests are about as accurate within 9 days post-symptom and obviously far easier in all aspects. If you still have to go through that up-your-nose crap for PCR test in your area/country, there's something wrong with your health department or its equivalent.

[miscmisc]

It's important to know that if the latest data on Omicron are roughly in the ball park in terms of accuracy, it is less severe than Delta, but *more* severe than the wild type (Wuhan) and "Italian/European" strain. There is no fixed direction or goal in the evolution of viruses like this. It's possible to infer some characteristics and tendencies of the evolution, but you can very easily end up committing the post hoc fallacy if you are not careful.

And you also have to remember that as I explained before, Omicron is not derived from Delta. These two are genomically far apart. You can't make up an easy narrative of evolution by simply putting them next to each other.

[gols]

You probably covered this already somewhere in this thread miscmisc, but what are your thoughts on the whole 'lab escape' scenario?

I read this a while back:

thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-origin-of-covid-did-people-or-nature-open-pandoras-box-at-wuhan/

It makes a pretty convincing argument, assuming the 'facts' presented are true (I haven't tried to verify!).

(TLDR version: the Wuhan Institute of Virology specialises in studying coronaviruses derived from bats, and was performing US-funded research including gain-of-function research i.e. modifying the 'wild' virus, at the time of the outbreak (plus lots more red flags)).

[miscmisc]

No, I don't think I've ever talked about it here.

I almost did a while ago when people like Zeynep Tufekci, whose tweets I read every day, started flirting with the lab escape theory. Their arguments sounded fairly convincing to me, and I thought it was totally wrong anyway to dismiss the theory outright from the "what the hell you non-scientist conspiracy theorists know about viruses, lol" position.

But then I listened to the other side, which consists overwhelmingly of virologists and epidemiologists, and they didn't give me the impression that they were bullshitting either. Needless to say, I don't think they've been receiving brown envelopes from the CCP either.

The discussion gets very technical after a certain point, and I really don't know yet where I stand. I can't say anything productive or meaningful about it, which is why the topic has been conspicuously absent in this thread. I can be highly careless and carelessly casual here, so this thread is not really above offending people needlessly or/and spreading misinformation, but the problem with this topic is that I don't think I can put my thoughts into one coherent rant.