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Post by miscmisc on Jan 4, 2022 9:04:53 GMT 1
Good thread.
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Post by miscmisc on Jan 4, 2022 13:15:39 GMT 1
It's remarkable that even with a variant whose biggest strength lies in immunity escape, an overwhelmingly vast majority of the hospitalized cases are unvaccinated. Ridiculously disproportionate.
So, emotionally, I do understand the position which argues that we should stop doing all Non Pharmaceutical Interventions and just let the disease run its course, since the unvaccinated won't get vaccinated no matter what, and they are also the ones who don't care and will laugh and piss at the NPI rules no matter how hard the society tries. That's the case in the US anyway. Supposedly the unvaccinated would be happily damaged, maimed or killed for the sake of LiBErTy, or under the weight of their own stupidity to be precise, and the best that the rest of the society could do is to let them be treated at the hospitals instead of turning them away.
That's a position that is almost gratuitously malicious to the healthcare system and workers, logistically suspect, and clearly ethically questionable on a few different levels (not many, but a few). But I do understand the sentiment. It's definitely not irrational.
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Post by miscmisc on Jan 6, 2022 0:47:35 GMT 1
LOL @ Djokovic. He will be a spectacularly confused narcissistic prick after retirement. In the category of Smart Athletes - he *is* "smart" - he's the polar opposite of, say, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, in a bad way.
And yes, he is also the best tennis player ever, the GOAT.
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Post by miscmisc on Jan 6, 2022 9:19:04 GMT 1
I see so many people gloating over the very low level of Covid deaths this time around. I mean, sure, it's obvious that Omicron is less virulent than Delta.
But this surge has been so sudden and quick that it appears that the cases and deaths seem even more out of sync than in the previous waves. And what have we learned about the basic relationship between cases and deaths? They haven't forgotten the basics, have they?
Let's come back and talk about the deaths four weeks later, shall we. I think in terms of absolute numbers a lot of people will die in this wave too.
In other words, we are nowhere near the endemic stage yet.
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Post by miscmisc on Jan 6, 2022 9:31:38 GMT 1
And let's just not forget that we don't live in the binary world of "healthy" and "dead". There's a whole enormous world between those two.
I repeat: You'd rather not get this virus. If you get it, c'est la vie, hopefully you'll be asymptomatic or as mildly symptomatic as I was, but there's no rational reason to be brave with this one. At all. Like I said, it's not just about how sick you get. There's a risk beyond that, and you should avoid it as much as possible. If you still believe in the cult of "natural immunity" even at this point, I don't know what to tell ya. You should just leave, because there isn't anything for you here.
And wear a good mask indoor. Consider the risk of eating out (Hint: very big).
I see the mobility graphs in the US and UK gone waaaaaaaay down despite the government doing virtually nothing. That's our non-strategy strategy now. Plan B, if you will. So, yeah, it's all up to you. Good luck.
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Post by miscmisc on Jan 6, 2022 11:54:40 GMT 1
I don't know how many times I have said this, but again, it's rare particularly in this age of the internet and quick search to have someone who is genuinely curious about various things. Joe Rogan is one, and that's his *only* strength when it comes to his popular show. He's not dumb at all, but not very bright either.
Oh yes, "I don't think he's a genius or anything, man, but he makes a lot of sense."
Again, that game of "making sense". There are so many people who can play that silly game all day long given a good platform that that's really not saying much.
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Post by miscmisc on Jan 6, 2022 13:32:57 GMT 1
OK, I can hear you say, "Wait, misc, the US, for instance, has been losing nearly 1,500 lives a day now. That's a lot of people if you ask me, so your saying that in terms of absolute numbers a lot of people will die in this wave too is a bit of cheating, isn't it? It's already happening! So it's not really a prediction!"
Yes, that's kinda true, but I didn't mean to "cheat". It's just that I think people in general are underestimating the consequences of this wave a bit. The fatality rates will be certainly lower than in the pure Delta waves, but in many places we should be several weeks away from seeing the true "fatality" wave. I think that's the case even in the UK, too, although maybe it's just a week or two in that country's case.
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Post by miscmisc on Jan 6, 2022 14:03:26 GMT 1
Covid by Omicron is definitely the fastest spreading disease that we've ever seen. Its R0/Rt is simply ridiculous.
Measles? Well that one was even more contagious than Omicron, but the generation time/incubation period is a hell of a lot longer with measles, so Omicron wins in real life. Big time, in fact.
We are watching something very special, folks. I don't think people truly appreciate its significance, and dare I say, beauty.
Of course we are in a typical RPG timeline, so there will be an even badder boss fight. And then afterwards...
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Post by miscmisc on Jan 6, 2022 14:09:24 GMT 1
What this kind of R0/Rt suggests is that you should get nowhere near anyone maskless. If you get a direct hit even for a moment, you are out.
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Post by miscmisc on Jan 6, 2022 14:13:57 GMT 1
We are incredibly lucky that this genius of a variant (I think we should call it a "strain", though) had a brain fart and ended up sucking so hard at replicating in the lungs.
Well, not really a "brain fart" I guess. Like I said, SARS-CoV-2 doesn't give a shit about lethality; It only cares about transmissibility. So Omicron is a winner.
We are very lucky anyway. Luck usually runs out in the end, though.
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Post by miscmisc on Jan 6, 2022 14:37:18 GMT 1
Of course there's no rationality in closing schools while keeping bars and restaurants and gyms and everything open. It's absolutely pointless, and unfortunately that means a lot of people will do it.
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Post by miscmisc on Jan 6, 2022 15:21:29 GMT 1
I don't know why many people are "puzzled" over the German Covid data. Germany did and still do have a fairly large Delta surge. It's finally coming down, and so is the hospitalization number. And now it's Omicron's turn, and cases will grow again. Then the hospitalizations will follow at some point.
Maybe I'm missing something here, but what's puzzling about that? It's just that Germany is different from the UK, US and France. No shit.
If there's anything "puzzling," that's the fact that it's been taking a lot longer in Germany for Omicron to community-spread.
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Post by miscmisc on Jan 6, 2022 17:39:05 GMT 1
So, so, so many people, all around the world, "wearing a facial mask" like idiots. Below the nose, on the chin, gaping gaps at both ends, hanging down from an ear, etc.
Again, that's not wearing a mask. You might as well wear a clown mask instead. You shouldn't even bother if you can't be arsed to do it right.
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Post by miscmisc on Jan 6, 2022 17:45:44 GMT 1
"Dozens"
Not very many considering it's Belgrade, is it?
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Post by miscmisc on Jan 7, 2022 3:20:22 GMT 1
In football (soccer):
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