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Post by miscmisc on Apr 21, 2022 9:58:06 GMT 1
I assume that the main forces defending Mariupol are the same old Azov guys. Even though most of them are neo-nazis, or maybe I should say precisely because of that, they are very good fighters. Without them Mariupol would've fallen a long, long time ago. Russia threw some of their best troops at it, yet the battle is still on. It will fall sooner or later, but it is remarkable that they have lasted this long.
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Post by miscmisc on Apr 21, 2022 15:51:59 GMT 1
The US/NATO doesn't want this war to end quickly. They want it to drag on. They want Ukraine to make Russia bleed as much as possible.
I've been asked by a few people why I'm confident that Russia won't be militarily successful. They say that given the massive advantage that Russia has in the air space - the Russian Air Force is one of the best in the world, and that's where Ukraine is massively inferior to Russia - it would be enormously difficult for Ukraine to carry out operations on the ground, and my honest answer would be that I think there's a cheat button in this "game": Namely, the NATO button.
I just cannot believe the US and NATO would let Ukraine lose easily and go, "Oh well, the Ukrainians couldn't deal with the airstrikes after all!" No way, there's too much at stake for them to be like that.
Ukrainians have been begging for aircrafts, and it appears that the US and European countries aren't giving them enough. It appears so. But I do think they will ratchet it up once the Russian AF starts terrorizing the Ukraine troops for real. It's impossible to create a large air force out of thin air, as it takes a lot more than just aircrafts, but they will throw everything anti-air at it if necessary. Hell, they - in this case probably the US military - might try out some newest air-to-air weapons.
They won't do that out of love for Ukrainians, but because, well, this is a proxy war to make Russia bleed, without having any of their own men killed.
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Post by miscmisc on Apr 22, 2022 2:02:00 GMT 1
This news came out a few hours after the previous post. For the US military, this war is a huge opportunity to test out new weapons. Only during wartime can they develop something like this so quickly. The US *is* at war now, and since the biggest weakness of the US military is the squeamishness over the deaths of their own men and women, well, you are a fool if you don't think many of them are secretly - or even not that secretly - excited now. They've got Ukrainians doing the "field work" and all the dying for them. This war is about as close to the WWII style large-scale military-versus-military warfare as possible in the 21st century, the military brass's wet dream. Of course you've got a bit of guerrilla warfare and all the typical invasion-occupation-related atrocities caused by that in towns and cities too, but that's far from all there is in this war.
The US military has been sick of all the asymmetrical urban warfare where the most expensive weapons tend to be absolutely useless. This war has got real *battlefields* and *multiple fronts* and *complex operations*.
Hopefully tactical nukes won't ruin their excitement.
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Post by miscmisc on Apr 22, 2022 2:39:13 GMT 1
I agree with Rob here. Much of the Chechen stuff in this war has been annoying PR crap. In none of the TikTok/Telegram videos and pictures do they look like people who have gone through serious fights. The guys in this video most certainly did NOT fight in the battle that took place there. They have been really, really just fucking around in this war. I don't know, maybe they think Russia will lose this one, and are trying not to lose their men for a lost cause.
I also think the naval infantry has done most of the work, and dying in Mariupol.
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Post by miscmisc on Apr 22, 2022 2:59:40 GMT 1
Our Atlantic Council Swedish psychopath is of course still at it. He had to delete this tweet because, well, even Ukraine supporters called foul on this senile-ish lunacy. He's been busy deleting tweets lately, like that "Hitler was actually better than Putin" one. He was one of Yeltsin's top economic advisors, and ended up completely FUBAR-ing the Russian economy in the 1990s. He has devoted most of his career trying to shift the responsibility onto the "Russian cultural backwardness" and Putin ever since. Yeah, he's the guy who plays with fire recklessly and ends up burning down a house, and then blames it on the wood that the house was made of for being inflammable. One of the worst people on this planet, with no hyperbole. Truly one of the worst of the worsts, a prime reason Russians tend to distrust the Western "experts". These ghouls talking shit about siloviki and Putin is a classic case of a pot meeting a kettle. Odious human beings, all of them.  |
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Post by miscmisc on Apr 22, 2022 3:24:16 GMT 1
Poroshenko made a huge deal out of Zelensky's first language being Russian (which is the case for most Jewish Ukrainians). A HUGE deal out of the "Russian accent" in his Ukrainian and all that. Those were the days, indeed.
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Post by miscmisc on Apr 22, 2022 3:45:06 GMT 1
Very interesting thread on the supposed air superiority of Russia.
This war has shown once again that the ground game has significantly changed due to the advent of the super-reliable anti-tank guided missiles (ATGM). That's how Ukraine managed to kick the Russians out on the Northern/Kyiv front. Russia has lost tons of tanks and APCs already.
But the air space is a different story. It's not that easy for the underdog up there.
But it does seem that something has been going on in this war. The Russian AF is so materially and numerically superior to its enemy that it should've completely dominated the air space by now. But it hasn't. Not yet anyway.
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Post by miscmisc on Apr 22, 2022 4:08:50 GMT 1
If you are curious to know what the worst kind of writing-acting synergy in TV drama looks and sounds like, check out the latest few episodes of Fear the Walking Dead. It's incredible stuff, instant Hall of Famers. "So bad it's delightful" stuff.
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Post by miscmisc on Apr 22, 2022 5:51:48 GMT 1
26 million dollar. That's just a fraction of the value of this company. For faking negative Covid test results for hundreds of people. Sounds like a fair society.
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Post by miscmisc on Apr 22, 2022 6:33:02 GMT 1
I mean, I told you over and over again, didn't I? Hell, I even like her. She's hilarious. I would love to make friends with her, if only to see how shallow she is.
It's just that she's a thoroughly unserious politician, a total featherweight who doesn't belong up there.
I hope you learned that you should always trust me more than you do those clueless pundits.
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Post by miscmisc on Apr 22, 2022 6:40:42 GMT 1
LOL. When has the game been NOT about those? What would baseball be without individual statistics? It's not really a team sport, but just an accumulation of individual stats based mostly on mano-a-mano contests. Whoever actually won those games, that's just an afterthought. People only remember how many strikeouts, how many home runs, the percentages, etc.
That's why I, despite being Japanese, never liked baseball. The whole thing seemed like a gigantic statistics presentation to me.
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Post by miscmisc on Apr 22, 2022 13:24:58 GMT 1
The Western media/opinion makers' overreactions to everything that Putin or siloviki or Russian officers says are so fucking irritating, especially since most of them come from the elementary misunderstanding on the nuances or often straight-up mistranslation. And of course it's exacerbated by the inherent prejudices.
Russian is a difficult language for non-Slavic people, but still an Indo-European one. Russians are "others" for the West, but historically mostly part of "Europe". Imagine how much stupid, offensive shit we have to deal with on the regular basis in Asia. It's even worse.
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gols
Novice Member
Posts: 163 
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Post by gols on Apr 22, 2022 14:37:38 GMT 1
Another piece of example of the weird shit between Russia and the UK: I know some of you were like ??? when I went on and on about this UK-Russia-London-Moscow stuff, but now you kind of see what I was getting at? No country other than Russia does this in this day and age. Britain occupies a very, very special place in Russia's mind. Incidentally, this guy, Solovyov, lost his villa in Italy due to the sanctions. So basically what you are saying is, when the nukes start flying, I will be the first one on this thread to bite it.
Well, it was nice knowing you all!  |
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Post by miscmisc on Apr 22, 2022 15:46:58 GMT 1
So basically what you are saying is, when the nukes start flying, I will be the first one on this thread to bite it. Well, it was nice knowing you all!  Seriously, quite possibly yes, lol. Every day someone on Channel One in Russia goes, "It's MI6!" It's dopey weird shit. I mean, MI6 isn't exactly a joke, but you get the impression that those Russians do think 007 is nonfiction, and that the CIA is below MI6 in the Anglo-conspiracy hierarchy. It's nice to have an enemy of that size who constantly overrates you, though. Kinda strokes your ego, doesn't it. China used to be like that toward Japan - "Those motherfuckers are just faking that peacenik bullshit... might invade us again any minute now!" - but mostly got over it a while ago. |
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Post by miscmisc on Apr 22, 2022 16:23:12 GMT 1
The more I look at the condition of the Russian military and their apparent plans, the less likely it seems to me that they will succeed even in this substantially scaled-down objective, that is the Donbas offensive. Many seem to assume that it's close to a done deal, that Russia will be able to take the whole Donbas sooner or later, but I don't really see it.
I mean, where are the troops? I'm sorry for such a basic question, but where are they? The ones that I see on the map are not enough to pull it off, are they? Maybe I'm missing something here, but it seems so incredibly risky; It seems that the whole plan is so fragile that it could fall apart with one medium-sized mistake/miscalculation.
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