Random Rant Thread

[miscmisc]

The world is in chaos now, but there's one thing that is very stable and peaceful, and that's the US presidential election.

You might find my use of the word "peaceful" wholly inappropriate given the shenanigans and freak theater that Donald has been doing, but look at the numbers.

They have been so goddamn consistent since, like, May. It's a calm at dawn that stays forever.

So uneventful, despite all the histrionics going on around the media and TV and interwebs.

[miscmisc]

The fact of the matter is that if Biden flips Wisconsin, Michigan, Nebraska's 2nd district (Omaha area), and Arizona, then he'd reach 270 votes right there and it'd be over. And Arizona is the hardest to win for Biden of these four.

Everyone is focusing on Pennsylvania and Florida, but those big states wouldn't even matter in the above scenario. That's why I've mentioned Arizona disproportionately more often in this thread than I did any other swing states. It's not going to be the tipping-point state - it's most likely Pennsylvania - but has always been THE key state IMO. Basically if Biden wins Arizona, the game is over for Trump even before worrying about Pennsylvania and Florida and so on.

Quite anticlimactic, but I've been saying for months that this is probably going to be a boring election.

Of course, a narrow Biden win would lead to Trump/GOP pulling all the tricks and shenanigans that you could think of to steal it. That wouldn't be so "boring" - in fact, catastrophically destructive for America, but that's a different matter.

[miscmisc]

You can clearly see the total vapidness and tiny-dick-ness of Thomas Chatterton Williams from the fact that he proudly uses that full name for everything.

Thomas Chatterton Williams, dude. What is it, an extremely exploitative textile factory owner in Birmingham, England, back in the old Imperial days? Super-wealthy evil 19th-century steel plant owner in Pittsburgh with six mistresses?

You can clearly tell his taste in things. If I were him, I would hide the fact that my middle name is "Chatterton" until the day I die, and never "Thomas" myself.

[miscmisc]

Every single one of those who make arguments like "This lockdown is likely to reduce GDP by 5%" is extremely, extremely dumb.

You don't assess the lockdown economy vis-a-vis the normal one; You do it vis-a-vis the one in a totally out-of-control epidemic ravaging the society.

Why are politicians so incredibly dense? Lacking in basic analytical ability is a prerequisite or something?

[rictor]

It's not like I was ever that concerned about my own health and I don't think the situation we're in now changed much about that. It could still be just a weird coincidence. But between two confirmed cases of COVID in our office and many members of our families or close friends suddenly getting sick (fever, lose of smell and taste etc.) you start to think you're likely infected as well. Honestly, part of me is already sick and tired of all this. Whatever happens happens.

Well, luckily it doesn't look like any of the cases is life-threatening, for now.

[miscmisc]

The loss of taste/smell is an almost quintessential Covid-19 symptom, so if you or anyone else has it, then yes, I'd say it's Covid-19. Only a minority of infected people develop that symptom, but those who do are almost definitely Covid-19 positive since the probability of any other disease causing it is extremely, extremely low, near zero.

You can never know for sure without testing, but like I said, it doesn't matter in your situation. If you can't get tested, you have to act like you've got it now no matter what.

It does seem like you've got an outbreak there. You should minimize your contact with the outside world as much as possible, and just take care of your family/loved ones if you aren't really sick yourself. Even if they aren't really sick either, you should just keep paying attention. I can't emphasize enough that this shit can go pretty bad all of a sudden.

Stay alert.

[miscmisc]

As usual, Zeynep Tufekci makes so much sense.

Stop Refreshing That Forecast
Why I changed my mind on modeling electoral forecasts
zeynep.substack.com/p/stop-refreshing-that-forecast

So, am I saying the models are wrong? Not at all. I’m saying that we have no way of knowing they are right or wrong, even after the election happens. They weren’t wrong in 2016. They aren’t wrong now, but they also aren’t right. By their nature, they are not meant to be right or wrong.

Given what we know right now, it’s plausible for either candidate to emerge as the victor. Given that our interest in this election is not a kin to disinterested gambler in betting markets (which is how these odds from the models would be useful), and given the impact the forecasts have on the outcome themselves, the best thing to do is to stop refreshing our web browsers constantly and stop trying to predict, not as a way to return to pointless horse-race coverage the punditry practiced before the models, but as a call to focus on the substance. This is an election, not a sports match, and we are not spectators or gamblers.

The fundamental problem with the election models/forecasts is that it's inevitably self-referential. And for that reason can never objectively be "right."

It's basically an experiment that has *some* relevance to the real world. I don't think the poll aggregators and modelers pretend to be anything more than what they are, but it seems that many of the people who can't consume enough of their probability distributions - those who refresh the forecast page 10 times an hour - do misunderstand it.

[miscmisc]

TAKE. A. FLU. SHOT.

It's so important this winter. We don't want to have a flu epidemic on top of the pandemic. It could jeopardize our efforts to save the hospitals and lives.

There are even some researches that argue that the flu shot could lessen the severity of Covid-19/reduce the infection rates. Absolutely nothing to lose, and a few big things to gain.

Please do it, wherever you are.

[miscmisc]

Listen to this man explaining it very well and concisely. This is rather important.

[miscmisc]

Belgium's COVID-19 health care collapse: 'It will happen in 10 days'
www.dw.com/en/belgiums-covid-19-health-care-collapse-it-will-happen-in-10-days/a-55451750

Sad. Sad because I've hoped now, for six months, that it would never happen. That people would have understood the risk. And that people would have changed their habits for one year. Just to avoid that. But it's a failure of the solidarity between people in Belgium — and a question of balance between solidarity and individual rights. Some people choose their own rights compared to solidarity. And the result is now here. I've seen people dying and regretting that they didn't wear the mask. I saw that. I saw families that had big parties with all the family members. And all the family members were infected. And I've got a family right now where 80% of the family is in the beds here. Right now, just after a birthday party. That's what I'm seeing now. But the danger now in Europe is everywhere. If people don't take hard measures soon, then you will live a nightmare like we are living right now.

House/home parties, including birthday parties, wedding parties etc., have been the major vehicle for the Covid-19 spread in this round. Truly staggering numbers that I see on the data.

Nature doesn't like to be disrespected. It's having a word with all of us.

[miscmisc]

And I'm reviewing the Belgian government's policies/measures over the last several months, and I'm beginning to see why the country has been hit so hard.

This is largely a horrible government failure as well.

Mind-bogglingly stupid attitude. With that, of course many people wouldn't see a problem inviting 15 people and party at home.

[miscmisc]

The problem with this kind of stories - which you see in every major election in a polarized society - is that anyone who is willing to share this kind of interpersonal family matters with the entire world on the record, even with their real name and picture, is probably a very weird, and frankly fairly flawed person to begin with. There's probably a reason for why their family is in crisis even beyond politics.

'You are no longer my mother': A divided America will struggle to heal after Trump era
www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-trump-families/you-are-no-longer-my-mother-a-divided-america-will-struggle-to-heal-after-trump-era-idUSKBN27I16E

[miscmisc]

When will they realize that the curfews are a waste of time and even money?

They talk a lot about "evidence," but the curfew is right up there as the one which has no evidence for whatsoever, on top of being something that doesn't make much sense based on what we have learned. But they keep doing them to appear to be doing something.

[gols]

UK going back into full lockdown on Thursday. You'd think there never was a 'first wave'.

[miscmisc]

Nov 3, 2020 15:22:29 GMT 1 gols said:

UK going back into full lockdown on Thursday. You'd think there never was a 'first wave'.

Should've started it 10 days ago at least, but I suppose all the "should've done it sooner" arguments are kind of moot. You get shit if you do, and get crap if you don't.

One day makes so much difference that it's almost always the case of "should've done it xxxx ago at least." If you model government responses and their outcome, you always have to factor in the delay because they never, ever respond optimally in time.

Nonetheless, the UK has been consistently four steps behind Germany in this pandemic. There must be very specific reasons.

I can't predict what's going to happen this winter. It's up to us, I guess.

Stay safe. It's probably going to be a tough one.