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Post by miscmisc on Nov 4, 2020 7:05:03 GMT 1
Anyway, it's not going to end any time soon. There are so many early/mail votes for PA/WI/MI to count, and it will take a long, long time.
You should probably go sleep if you're American.
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Post by miscmisc on Nov 4, 2020 7:22:49 GMT 1
Fox News called NE-02 for Biden. It's only ONE vote, but huge insurance. On our way to my 270-268 clusterfuck scenario, lol.
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Post by miscmisc on Nov 4, 2020 7:48:14 GMT 1
Texan Dems will have to address the huge Tejanos problem. Most of the Latino Texans in my region are more in line with Arizonans and New Mexicans, but those rural Tejanos in particular went almost all in for Trump.
Julian Castro warned about it, and so did I in fact in this thread, but this problem is even bigger than I thought. I bet Castro is a little surprised too.
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bol
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Post by bol on Nov 4, 2020 8:33:22 GMT 1
I think you were on point again about this election misc, though it seems it won't be a boring election. The Republicans as feared seem to try the strategy of stealing it through further suppressing mail votes. Anyway, I learned things about the election here that helps to understand some things that are otherwise mysterious (watching ARD currently, not that informative). Thank you.
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Post by miscmisc on Nov 4, 2020 13:58:32 GMT 1
Yeah, I should've phrased it differently - this election is *arithmetically* pretty boring, but plenty exciting in terms of drama.
Well, maybe not even that arithmetically boring since a few of the states Biden has won or is probably going to win seem very, very close, a lot closer than I thought they would be.
But Biden is probably going to win it, barring the GOP attempt to steal it.
So, yeah, this has turned out to be a close election contrary to what most people seem to have expected on the eve of the election day - a very comfortable Biden win or even a complete landslide victory - I was pretty spot on, including the way Biden made a giant step forward from a pretty shitty situation by taking the Arizona-NE02 route.
I've got to say this, though: It's a lot closer than I thought in the swing states except for Arizona. Even though Biden will probably win the White House, Dems have been an epic failure in the Senate races and struggling even in House races. Dems aren't really the winners here. This is a deeply disappointing result for them.
America will continue to be pretty ungovernable for years to come.
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gols
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Post by gols on Nov 4, 2020 14:05:51 GMT 1
For the states that have declared a winner, does that mean all the postal votes have also been counted?
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Post by miscmisc on Nov 4, 2020 14:08:21 GMT 1
For the states that have declared a winner, does that mean all the postal votes have also been counted? No, not at all. Only in the states where it's too close to call without counting them. Which means Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Arizona (although already called for Biden by ABC and Fox News), Michigan, and Pennsylvania. These states won't be called before counting all the mail ballots. |
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gols
Novice Member
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Post by gols on Nov 4, 2020 14:12:26 GMT 1
For the states that have declared a winner, does that mean all the postal votes have also been counted? No, not at all. Only in the states where it's too close to call without counting them. Ok. So not possible for any of the already declared states to have a landslide of postal votes change the outcome.
Getting very nervous and I'm not even American / have no connection to the US!
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Post by miscmisc on Nov 4, 2020 14:27:54 GMT 1
No, that's not possible. Those states have a clear winner. They will count all the votes *eventually*, but it will take forever in some states (e.g. California).
Seems like Biden is very narrowly winning Wisconsin (and Nevada). Fox News is right, and he's clearly won Arizona. He's already won NE-02 too. And Trump's initial lead in Michigan has all but evaporated due to the onslaught of the mail ballots for Biden in the last minutes (heavily Dem everywhere).
Like I said a couple of days ago, if Biden flips Arizona, NE-02, Wisconsin, and Michigan, he has 270 EV's, and the race is at least nominally over right there. Pennsylvania and Georgia and North Carolina won't even matter = just a bonus if Biden wins any of them. I suspect he will win Pennsylvania, and the NYT favors Biden slightly in Georgia (I'm not sure).
So, basically Biden will probably take my dreaded 270-268 route to the White House, except he will also win Pennsylvania as a (big) bonus.
That's what I see anyway. Could still be wrong though.
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Post by miscmisc on Nov 4, 2020 16:40:54 GMT 1
Dems have been really disastrous in down-ballot races. It's still possible for them to win the Senate majority, but chances are extremely slim now. They will retain the House majority, but we were talking about how many seats Dems will add - instead they are poised to lose seats while only barely keeping the majority status.
The only good news so far is that The Squad will be more powerful since Jamaal Bowman, Mondaire Jones, Marie Newman and Cori Bush have won or are winning, and these four freshman representatives will join AOC, Pressley, Omar, and Tlaib to form The Squad 2.0. It's not just that it will get bigger, but will have bigger influence and more say as the size of the Democratic House majority will shrink; The Squad will become a bigger pie on both the absolute and relative terms.
But then, that may be good news for me, but not for the Dem leadership at all.
If you ask people what they want, they are mostly aligned with Democratic agenda. But in actual elections, they don't vote for those very things and clap their hands for Papa Donald the Clown up on the stage instead.
You can't really solve that puzzle - especially since it's actually not a puzzle at all.
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Post by miscmisc on Nov 4, 2020 17:13:36 GMT 1
Yes, there's a pandemic going on. So there is a very big, legit excuse. But what this election has proven, once again, for the n-th time, is:
You. Must. Knock. On. Many. Doors. If. You. Want. To. Win.
Republicans did for months in Florida, particularly in Miami, in the middle of the pandemic. They have the clear advantage of being reckless and fundamentally irresponsible, but liberals should completely discard that stupid idea that those sweat-and-tears things are somehow "obsolete in the 21st century." They fucking aren't.
I know some of those Dem staffers actually LIKED the fact that they didn't have to do that kind of stuff nearly as much thanks to the pandemic.
They ought to face the utter embarrassment that happened in Miami, not only in the presidential race but also in the down-ballot races, and think hard.
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Post by miscmisc on Nov 4, 2020 17:24:15 GMT 1
Four years ago, it was more of a modeling error and people not paying enough attention, although there were indeed some glaring polling errors.
But this year? It's gigantic polling errors one after another. Those poll results turned out to be wildly off in many cases. Complete garbage numbers.
We are witnessing a hard limit of "social science." The polling industry is in a crisis.
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gols
Novice Member
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Post by gols on Nov 4, 2020 18:11:45 GMT 1
Dems have been really disastrous in down-ballot races. Wasn't this one of the establishment Dem's attacks on Sanders? That he didn't care about the down-ballot candidates? Oops |
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Post by K1power on Nov 4, 2020 18:45:18 GMT 1
The biggest surprise for me so far on this election day is this: This is a...... great take. Totally makes sense. From what I understand Vito's storyline was adapted from the novel while Michael's storyline was new and written specifically for the film. While it's a fun theory, it's not necessary to make the film work. It's not like the film makes less sense or isn't already perfect without it. It's someone's out-of-universe headcanon for Michael's in-universe headcanon. It's headcanonception. |
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Post by miscmisc on Nov 5, 2020 3:13:26 GMT 1
The biggest surprise for me so far on this election day is this: This is a...... great take. Totally makes sense. From what I understand Vito's storyline was adapted from the novel while Michael's storyline was new and written specifically for the film. While it's a fun theory, it's not necessary to make the film work. It's not like the film makes less sense or isn't already perfect without it. It's someone's out-of-universe headcanon for Michael's in-universe headcanon. It's headcanonception. Of course it's just a fun theory, and wouldn't necessary make it "better," but an artwork isn't the creator's but yours. This theory turns it into a very different film. That's cool. |
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