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Post by miscmisc on Nov 5, 2020 3:17:53 GMT 1
It DOES seem that Fox News, of all networks, was indeed a bit premature when its desk called Arizona for Biden so early, lol.
It's probably Biden's, just by a lot smaller margin than the election desks assumed, but who knows. So close. I think Fox News should retract the call actually.
But it will be probably largely moot anyway because:
It seems that Biden is going to win Pennsylvania, AND Georgia. Now I can see Georgia going into his hands, if only barely. And Pennsylvania is on track to be a CLEAR victory for Biden. Trump has a substantial lead in the state now, but the remaining votes to be counted are heavily, heavily, HEAVILY blue. That lead will disappear, and go into the negative territory quickly.
Nevada is extremely close, but it's Biden's too. It's ridiculous the state is so close, though. Dems seriously underperforming again. I guess Dana did a good job, right?
That will push Biden over 300 EV's. That's a not-bad win at the end of the day. If Arizona turns bad, they can totally afford to lose those 11 EVs and do without messy challenges and so on. And Georgia is just a bonus that they can lose too.
Trump will be going to challenge/sue the crap out of everything, everyone, but it's over.
Biden will be the next president of the United State of America in the end.
Bye Donald.
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Post by miscmisc on Nov 5, 2020 5:21:07 GMT 1
If we had to "stop counting!", as Trump demands, it would be exactly my 270-268 scenario, and he would lose.
Winning Pennsylvania wouldn't be enough. He would have to win either Nevada or Arizona, and that would be possible only if they keep counting.
What a dilemma, lol.
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Post by miscmisc on Nov 5, 2020 6:23:44 GMT 1
You can tell it's an irrational cult when you see people gathered around the place to demand the ballots be counted... when that's exactly what they are doing inside the building, counting the ballots.
It makes no sense, unless you know it's a fucking cult.
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Post by miscmisc on Nov 5, 2020 12:51:51 GMT 1
There are a lot of things about this election that dampen my spirit, and one of them is that in Florida, many, many, many people voted YES for the minimum wage ballot measure, but then voted for Trump and a Republican House candidate five seconds later.
I mean, it's just hard on the emotional level to justify those people having voting rights at all. It's really hard. Those ignorant, selfish, classless people.
But they should have the right. It's hard to say this, but they should.
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Post by miscmisc on Nov 5, 2020 13:05:02 GMT 1
There have been LOTS of Trump impersonators coming and going on TV and online in the last four years, but this guy might be legit the best. It's the flow that's unmistakably Donald's. He had the same flow when he was younger and had a softer voice. And it's hard to mimic his Borscht Belt accent.
Amazing.
"We're not people who do glitches"
This killed me, lol.
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Post by miscmisc on Nov 5, 2020 17:09:06 GMT 1
Unfortunately I know this woman.
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Post by miscmisc on Nov 5, 2020 18:01:03 GMT 1
You guys know I'm not such a big fan of election forecast models such as 538's and The Economist's.
But this idiot:
This clown wrote a story in early October saying that Trump has no chance, based on what the election forecast models said, even though those models said at the time that Trump had 15-25% chance to win it.
And he says that things are "broken," and the polls and models are to blame.
If anything is "broken," it's stupid pundits/"journalists" like Cillizza. What a fucking oblivious moron.
Those models gave Biden very high probabilities for winning the election. I didn't like it, primarily because of the impression that it would give people, namely the idea that Biden's going to landslide Trump or such. That's not what high probability means, but people tend to interpret it that way.
But I feel like I've got to defend them when idiots attack them.
Think about it. Polls were way off in many states, from top to bottom, and the reality turned out to be a LOT more Trump-friendly than the polling suggested.
Yet Biden is going to win.
And that is exactly what it means to be given a high percentage. It means Biden's position was strong enough to withstand "accidents" like a number of massive polling errors. That's what the models predicted, and they were actually spot on about that.
But those morons wouldn't even understand what I'm talking about, because their brains are "broken" beyond repair.
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Post by miscmisc on Nov 5, 2020 18:15:05 GMT 1
I have some fundamental questions over the validity of these models. I think they are fundamentally flawed.
But I have to defend them when they are victims of stupidity and hypocrisy.
Those monkeys aren't even qualified to discuss the merit and demerit of the predictive models. It's a topic for adults. They are too stupid to participate in it.
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jarzi
Rookie Member
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Post by jarzi on Nov 5, 2020 19:24:36 GMT 1
This clown wrote a story in early October saying that Trump has no chance, based on what the election forecast models said, even though those models said at the time that Trump had 15-25% chance to win it. And he says that things are "broken," and the polls and models are to blame. Poker should be taught in schools so people would understand odds better. |
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Post by miscmisc on Nov 6, 2020 0:12:23 GMT 1
It's strangely soothing to see Trump's lead in Pennsylvania steadily shrink every 10 minutes, approaching zero rather quickly. This won't even be close in the end.
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Post by miscmisc on Nov 6, 2020 2:35:34 GMT 1
Donald is such a dangerous moron. People with his kind of background tend to be like this when their back is to the wall, and you guys are looking at a man who has almost never had to actually pay for his mistakes in his life.
This is really dangerous. I didn't find that shit funny at all. The cult members never doubt their leader.
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Post by miscmisc on Nov 6, 2020 2:49:32 GMT 1
Nevada seems to suffer from California Disease.
Doesn't seem to give a shit about counting ballots quickly EVEN WHEN it's a battleground state.
It's so slow that it's absolutely ridiculous. It's a fucking tiny state. It should've finished counting ages ago.
And Arizona isn't much better. Painfully slow, and they give us no goddamn useful information unlike Pennsylvania and Georgia.
California disease.
I'm pretty sure we'll learn the final result of California around February 2021 or something this time, again.
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Post by miscmisc on Nov 6, 2020 8:19:22 GMT 1
It just takes forever, so I hereby declare victory for Joe Biden. "Too close to call," my ass.
He's definitely winning Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania. Most likely Arizona too. Biden 306, Trump 232.
Not a landslide, but a good win. Better than I thought. Didn't think he could win Georgia.
It's over.
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Post by miscmisc on Nov 6, 2020 12:06:48 GMT 1
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gols
Novice Member
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Post by gols on Nov 6, 2020 13:01:56 GMT 1
Nevada seems to suffer from California Disease. Doesn't seem to give a shit about counting ballots quickly EVEN WHEN it's a battleground state. It's so slow that it's absolutely ridiculous. It's a fucking tiny state. It should've finished counting ages ago. And Arizona isn't much better. Painfully slow, and they give us no goddamn useful information unlike Pennsylvania and Georgia. California disease. I'm pretty sure we'll learn the final result of California around February 2021 or something this time, again. Why is it taking so long? They don't hire enough counters? |
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